Weekly Crypto Market Update - April 1, 2024

LAST WEEK RECAP:

• U.S. PCE increased 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY, matching estimates. Core PCE increased 0.3% MoM and 2.5% YoY, v.s. 0.4% and 2.5% estimated.
• The U.S. government indicted Kucoin and two of its founders on criminal charges, citing a "multibillion-dollar criminal conspiracy."
• U.S. CFTC (The Commodity Futures Trading Commission) says ETH and LTC are commodities in the Kucoin lawsuit.
• Tether expands its focus into AI industry.
• BTC ETF started posting net inflows after 5 consecutive days of outflow.
• Sam Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in prison.
• Fetch.ai, SingularityNET, and Ocean protocol discuss merge to form ASI token.

LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

The dollar's strength against other currencies is undermined and DXY stays steady at 104 level after US PCE inflation came in line with expectations and boosted June cut probability. Powell also reiterated that the inflation trend is what FED would like to see.

As we've mentioned before, DXY is likely to stay in the 100-107 range, which will help risky asset rally.

LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX continues to stay at its current low levels, less than 15, and reflects the confident mode of the current risky asset market. As mentioned last week, VIX is likely to pick up in 2H when we’re closer to the election.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC had a nice rebound back to $70K after seeing net positive ETF inflow again, with halving coming in this month, we expect to see further strength in BTC.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH started some catch-up along with a strong performance of some restaking narratives on tokens such as Pendle and ETHFi; we expect further pick-up once BTC dominance stabilizes.

ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC rebounds from $0.05 key support level but the magnitude is still small; it's likely for ETH/BTC to still consolidate more at its current level with BTC leading towards BTC halving narratives.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 breakout slowed down as BTC takes the lead again with net ETF inflows; only meme sectors are outperforming now. With BTC dominance stabilizing more, we expect more alt sectors such as AI, RWA, meme, restaking to outperform and TOTAL3 to continue the breakout.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

ALT/BTC rebound slowed down this week but still maintains its uptrend, we’re still bullish on ALT/BTC but it might experience short-term slowdown as BTC halving grows closer.

SUMMARY

• Last week’s PCE inflation is in line with expectations and Powell’s reiteration.
• Market attention switched to this week’s U.S. job number to validate June’s rate cut probability.
• BTC is likely to continue outperforming with halving coming in this month and positive net ETF inflow reemerging; market-wide altcoin rally will still need to wait for BTC dominance ratio to stabilize first.

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post is prepared by Kairon Labs Traders: Joshua van de Kerckhove, and Patrick Li

Edited by: Marianne Dasal